The Battle for the Senate
The presidential election is getting a lot of buzz lately, and rightfully so, since this election will determine our country’s prospects for the next four years and beyond. But despite all the attention surrounding the presidency, there are many competitive Senate races that will decide who controls the Senate. As we have seen during the current 116th Congress, holding a Senate majority is an incredibly powerful position for either party to be in. Currently, the Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, so the Democrats have the often-tough challenge of needing to gain at least three seats. In addition, they will almost certainly lose Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, which they were lucky to win in a 2017 special election.
At the start of this election cycle, many pundits saw the Senate as massively difficult for the Democrats. It has largely been assumed that they will keep their majority in the House of Representatives, but the Senate map looked much harder. It seemed unlikely that Democrats would be able to pick up seats in South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Kansas, or Georgia, considering that Trump won all of these states in 2016, and because in four of them, they will have to beat a Republican incumbent.
Despite the clear difficulties the Democrats face, however, the news in the last few months regarding the Senate has been especially positive for them. Races that were considered long shots, such as Montana, South Carolina, and Iowa, now look more like tossups. In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast now has the Democrats favored to win the Senate, with its highest-probability projection predicting they will win 51 seats. Recent polling suggests they are likely to gain seats in Maine, Arizona, and Colorado while also protecting Gary Peters’s seat in Michigan. This trend suggests that a “blue wave” may be coming, which could give the Democrats control of the House, Senate, and presidency. Given the recent changes in Senate projections, I believe it is worth looking into the reasons why they are making Senate races competitive across the board.
While many factors have contributed to the recent surge in their Senate chances, I believe fundraising and enthusiasm play the largest roles. Democratic Senate challengers are raising money to an extent never seen before, which has forced the GOP to go on the defensive. Challenger Jaime Harrison in South Carolina raised a whopping $57 million in the third financial quarter, a colossal amount for a Senate race in a state which President Trump won with about 55 percent of the vote. In the North Carolina race, challenger Cal Cunningham raised $28.3 million in the third quarter, nearly quadrupling his $7.4 million in the previous quarter. In Iowa, a state Trump won with 51 percent of the vote (beating Hillary Clinton by almost 10 points), Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield raised $28.7 million in the third quarter.
It is worth considering that great fundraising does not always mean enthusiasm for a candidate. For example, Michael Bloomberg spent about $1 billion this year in his run for the Democratic presidential nomination, yet failed to win strong support. But the fundraising that is elevating the campaigns of Democratic Senate challengers appears to result more from genuine enthusiasm among voters. This is highlighted by the fact that the majority of donations to these candidates are small-dollar rather than corporate or corporate-related. For example, Cunningham’s campaign reported that more than 40,000 North Carolinians had contributed in the past three months, with 96 percent of the donations under $100. Similarly, in Iowa, Greenfield’s campaign reported that 95 percent of third-quarter contributions were $100 or less.
These contributions highlight a genuine enthusiasm for Democratic candidates from voters, as even working-class families in large numbers are willing to give money in hopes of achieving a Senate majority. While some may argue that out-of-state contributions do not reflect enthusiasm from voters within the state, they certainly reflect an overall support for Democrats, also seen in Joe Biden’s substantial polling lead over Trump. In fact, the Biden campaign raised a record $383 million in the month of September, which shows that Democratic voters have been willing to support a Democratic agenda with their money. While the battle for the Senate initially looked difficult for the Democrats, they have plenty of reasons to be optimistic heading into this election.