America’s Response to War in Europe
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the most historically significant foreign policy actions since the turn of the century. Many will die, and the ramifications of President Putin’s actions will affect the world for years to come. The Biden Administration and NATO are facing a momentous task. They have acted diligently so far, but political pressures will only grow for our world leaders. The United States has a notably steep road ahead.
Observe the private sector, Congress, and the media carefully going forward. To start with the private sector: despite early dropoffs in the stock market, war should be terrific for our economy. History serves as our guide here; World War II lifted us from the Great Depression, while the more recent Russian invasion of Crimea resulted in an initial market selloff, followed by a market surge. The media motivations behind emboldening war cries are just as clear: more conflict equals more viewership, and therefore more money. With most politicized media outlets facing ratings slumps of late, media executives would welcome flashy updates about the “War in Europe” to their 24-hour cycles with open arms.
Looking to Capitol Hill: keep in mind that wartime presidents and Congresses are very popular. Be prepared for politicians on both sides of the aisle to advocate for increased military action against Russian aggression. They have “skin in the game,” although not compared with the soldiers who could be Europe-bound in no time flat. Democrats will use Ukraine to divert attention away from their inflation–enabling economic policies, while many hawkish Republicans will use this opportunity to further bolster national defense and American troop presences across Eastern Europe.
To the credit of this White House, President Biden has adamantly confined punishments of Russia to targeted sanctions. He understands that Ukraine is not a NATO ally, and that a war between nuclear powers over Ukraine’s sovereignty remains highly undesirable. But even so, those unpopular Democrats and hawkish Republicans will emerge in short time – against the wills of their constituencies – and Biden will have an increasingly difficult time ignoring their calls to arms.
Two points to keep in mind as we watch the U.S. response to the crisis are American energy policy and the quality – in my view, the strategic inadequacy – of Biden’s foreign policy officials.
The Biden Administration enacted flawed energy policies and they need to reverse course fast. The United States now imports between 12 and 26 million barrels of oil from Russia each month, after losing our energy independence status last year. Will Biden sanction Russian oil companies, thereby raising domestic fuel prices even more, or does he leave those companies untouched? The first outcome appears more likely, as Russia is a petroleum (and natural gas) country and the best way for Biden and NATO to cause real economic damage is by targeting Russian energy production capacities. If this is indeed likely, we should prepare for average gas prices to surpass four dollars per gallon in a short time. The policy prescription for Team Biden here is simple: the administration needs to ignore the progressive wing of his party and bulk up our energy infrastructure. We are not in peacetime anymore, and “climate czar” John Kerry’s excessive energy gambles unacceptably threaten the American people.
Biden’s foreign policy team is utterly and woefully predictable. Between President Obama and the West forfeiting Crimea in 2014, Biden forfeiting Afghanistan last year, and refreshed American dependencies on Russian oil, Putin considered weak targeted sanctions as his worst-case scenario. With President Trump, Putin never knew what he was going to get; this seems to have resulted in a four-year Russian imperial hiatus. But the hiatus is now over, the establishment foreign policy bureaucrats are back in charge, and their playbook has been predictable since the end of the Cold War. While I am not advocating untested foreign policy approaches toward an aggressive nuclear power, Biden’s national security officials must be more creative with their strategies and keep our adversaries guessing.
Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” No one knew how Putin would strike Ukraine, while few seem to have expected him to invade so broadly and quickly. There will be confusion in NATO countries about how to respond, amplifying the importance of clear direction from President Biden and European leaders. The West has just been punched in the face, and our leaders are now in the game of damage control. Let us hope that they will lead and represent the free world well.